Why Peak 2025 Is Different—And What Brands Need To Know Now
by Lori Boyer
Peak season isn’t broken. It’s being rewritten.
For years, many brands approached peak season with a tried-and-true playbook: lock in forecasts, negotiate carrier rates early, launch promotions on schedule, and scale operations to match. And for years, that mostly worked.
But not anymore.
Peak 2025 is shaping up to be one of the most volatile peak seasons we’ve seen in recent memory. If you’re still planning Peak 2025 the way you planned 2023 or 2022, it’s time for a reset.
So—what’s different this year? Let’s break it down.
External pressures are higher than ever
Tariffs, inflation, and runaway shipping costs are squeezing margins harder than ever. Many brands are having to revisit product and shipping strategies midstream just to stay profitable.
- Shipping costs surged 8% in 2024.
- Tariffs on popular imports are already hitting supply chains this year.
Consumer confidence is low
More than 54% of U.S. adults plan to spend less this holiday season, and many are delaying purchases or seeking better value. Shoppers are more informed, more price-sensitive, and less forgiving of poor experiences.
Peak timing is less predictable
The old “Cyber 5” model is fading. Demand curves are flatter, late-breaking promotions are common, and demand shifts are harder to forecast. Many brands saw unexpected early demand spikes last year—and unexpected lulls during traditional peak weeks (Retail Dive).
Carriers are shifting fast
Regional carrier usage surged more than 30% last year as brands diversified to manage volatility in pricing, capacity, and service levels.
Legacy systems are struggling
A full 88% of businesses say their legacy systems are holding them back from growth and efficiency (MHI Annual Industry Report). Under peak pressure, brittle systems and manual workarounds can quickly become bottlenecks.
Why this matters
Peak 2025 isn’t just “another peak.” It’s a pressure test for every part of your shipping strategy: cost management, forecasting, carrier agility, and tech stack flexibility.
The brands that come out ahead won’t simply ship faster. They’ll adapt faster, decide faster, and recover faster—because every delay, every margin hit, and every customer experience misstep will cost more this year.
What’s next
In this blog series, we’ll explore the five biggest pressures shaping Peak 2025—and how leading brands are adapting:
- Navigating rising costs
- Winning cautious consumers
- Building carrier agility
- Modernizing the shipping stack
- The cost of standing still
Stay tuned—next week we’ll dive into how brands are managing rising costs this peak season.
Want the full guide now? Download our free ebook: Why Peak 2025 Is Different—And How Leading Brands Are Adapting → [Download the ebook]