Unboxing the Trends: Warehouse Jobs Drop, Parcel Costs Rise With Tim Ranagan and Lori Boyer From EasyPost - Ep. 67

August 7, 2025 | 15:22

In This Episode

July 2025 didn’t bring any earth-shattering developments—but that doesn’t mean nothing happened. When you look closely, you can see subtle but significant shifts in the realm of shipping and logistics.

In this episode, Lori Boyer and Tim Ranagan discuss the latest trends and share some strategies for adapting. Here’s a rundown:

Warehouse jobs have dropped

This time of year usually sees an increase in warehouse jobs as businesses start preparing for the holiday shipping season. But 2025 isn’t staying on script.

Lori explains, “Typically, as we hit about July, from July through November … we see about 10,000 to 15,000 additional warehouse jobs open up. [But this] July, we actually lost almost 6,500 warehouse jobs. … We have our lowest number of total warehouse roles … since COVID.”

Carriers compensate for low shipping volume

Warehouse labor isn’t the only thing on the decline. In July, domestic package volume dropped by 7.3% year-over-year. The result? Carriers—especially national ones—have been adjusting their operations and raising prices to protect their margins.

“In the last month or so, FedEx [has] consolidated its network. It's been cutting staff. … [And] USPS just raised its rates again.”

To keep shipping costs low, Lori and Tim recommend diversifying your carrier mix. As Lori puts it, “You shouldn't ever have a single carrier.”

A tip to prepare for peak season

We’re coming up on a “peak season of uncertainty and a little challenge.” Amidst economic uncertainty and decreasing consumer demand, shippers should focus on flexibility.

“You need to communicate, you need to diversify, [you need to] keep an eye on what's going on, and … be ready to pivot and make changes on the fly.”

Transcript

Tim Ranagan 00:00

Hello, and welcome to another episode of Unboxing the Trends. My name is Tim Ranagan, your host, and I've got with me again today. Lori Boyer, the host of Unboxing Logistics podcast. Lori, how you doing today?

Lori Boyer 00:14

I'm doing so good, and I just wanna say, great job pronouncing my name. I have to speak on a lot of webinars and stuff, and people always, apparently I've got a hard name, Lori Boyer.

I don't know, but you did perfect. I loved it.

Tim Ranagan 00:27

Well, I appreciate that. I appreciate the vote of confidence. Lori we're we're gonna talk about trends again this month. July didn't bring up some huge headlines. Right. But I'm just curious, you've mentioned that it revealed a lot, so I'd love to get your thoughts on what trends are kind of quietly making their way through the month.

Lori Boyer 00:47

Yeah, July kind of flew under the radar a little bit, Tim, but I think for those people who are paying attention, there are some trends, some kind of things under the surface that are building, there's a couple, two things specifically that I really wanna touch on today as, as trends that I'm kind of keeping my eye on.

We had our latest data come out around warehouse jobs, and that was really interesting. Our, our labor, we've actually had some dropping there and, and so I wanna get into that. That's one thing. Warehouse labor is something I'm keeping an eye on. And the other thing are kind of our carrier volumes.

So, we're moving towards peak. July is done. July is, to me, like the very beginning of kind of looking at some forecasting stuff.

Tim Ranagan 01:35

It's like that tip of the iceberg, right?

Lori Boyer 01:37

Exactly. Where, where companies start making some shifts and some changes. And so while there was nothing huge in the headlines, underneath, if you looked, there were just sort of some, some bubbling issues with both warehouse labor and with our carriers. So those are kind of the two things that I'd love to talk about.

Tim Ranagan 01:58

Awesome. Well, let's let's dive into warehouse labor a little bit. So we talked about this a little bit in last month's episode of Unboxing the Trends, but I'm curious, how serious is this labor conversation as we head into peak?

Right. We kind of talked about it leading up the first, you know, two quarters of the year. I'm sure we have a lot of listeners out there that are wondering what this could or how this could impact us as we head into peak.

Lori Boyer 02:26

Yeah, absolutely. So I think it's a little bit more concerning than I had thought previously.

Typically, as we hit about July, from July through November, and these numbers change a little bit, but typically we see about 10 to 15,000 additional warehouse jobs open up to get us all through peak. In July, we actually lost almost 6,500 warehouse jobs. Quite a big contraction. We actually have our lowest number of total warehouse roles right now since COVID. Since the early days of COVID really when, you know, a lot of people had to go home. That's, to me, a big red flag about in a couple of different ways. It really shows that, you know, people are concerned about the, the seasonal ramp isn't quite materializing the way that maybe we anticipated.

So some of these larger companies are kind of betting on maybe volume is gonna be lower and, and that maybe it's a little riskier than some of our signs have shown in terms of what the predictions and the forecasts across the board are for consumer demand through peak. That being said, you know, again, our consumer demand, our consumer confidence is low.

We're still seeing a lot of, of purchases being made. So that does raise the point that if we do get a, a good volume or when we hit some of those microsurges that we talk about, when you get a big volume spike, warehouses may not be able to handle them quite as well as they would in a normal year.

When they're understaffed, everything just slows down. Orders are gonna take longer to get picked, packed out the door. That just kind of creates a ripple effect when it comes to deadlines and really just makes everything a little bit more difficult. So yeah, if I were a shipper right now, I'd be paying very close attention to what's going on in the warehouse.

Tim Ranagan 04:39

Okay, great. So let, let's dive into the warehouse a little bit, right? EasyPost, we work with a lot of 3PLs, so we kind of hear feedback from that side of the warehouse. What does this mean for the 3PLs? What does this mean for internal fulfillment operations? Can you dive into that a little bit as well, Lori?

Lori Boyer 04:58

Yeah, sure. So for me, again, if you're a shipper and you rely on a 3PL, or even if you have your own internal, you know, fulfillment ops. This means that you shouldn't assume that your partners are gonna be a hundred percent ready for peak. 3PLs they're great and, and they're amazing and we work with 'em all the time, you said.

But since what the numbers show is that warehouse staffing is down. Just communicate. Find out, you know, how are you staffing up what's your plan if my demand spikes? Are you using automation? That's another point here is it could be, and we don't have the data on this, it could be that a lot of warehouses are simply implementing more automation and, and so they don't need as many workers.

So maybe that's the case with your 3PL. Maybe they're just using automation. And, and obviously if you, yourself. If you're running your own warehouse, your own fulfillment centers, just look for potential choke points, always. You know, look at your process now, if you are cutting back on workers or, or you're thinking, just make some contingency plans for what you do when volume spike.

I'm gonna say when, Tim, because everybody's gonna get some good volume at some point this peak.

Tim Ranagan 06:12

I love that. I, I love that recommendation, Lori. Communication is key, especially as we head into peak season. No matter where you're at in your supply chain, reach out to those who are involved, especially when you get into these fulfillment centers.

'Cause as we head into peak, as Lori mentioned, when that volume ramps up, you're gonna wanna make sure that you have plans in place and the contingency plan in place in case things get bottlenecked.

Lori Boyer 06:40

That's exactly right on the nose there, Tim. And so, yeah, communicate, reach out, talk to 'em, what are you doing? What's going on? What are the plans? And, and make sure you have those plans in place.

Tim Ranagan 06:51

Awesome. Love that. Okay so we've talked about fulfillment center. Let's talk about that last mile stretch. Lori, what's going on with carriers as we head into peak, specifically UPS, FedEx, USPS? Is there anything that shippers need to be paying close attention to as we head into the, this last couple quarters of the year?

Lori Boyer 07:11

So there were some interesting signs, again, you know, carriers I've actually really been diving into lately. I'm such a nerd, Tim, but like the trends decade over decade is because we're starting to see a lot of signals of carriers. There's some stuff going on in the carrier landscape in general that is a change.

And so, yeah, this is a, a shout out for some upcoming webinars and stuff, but I will be diving into carriers in great depth and what's happening, so keep an eye out for that. But in July, we did see some additional numbers pop up around our carriers, especially our big carriers. Let me see if I can find the numbers.

So we saw. July of this year to July of last year, a 7.3% decrease in the domestic package volume through that. That's a lot bigger jump than we usually see. It, it's a lot bigger than last year's dip. We had a dip last year. We had a dip the year before that. We're having a multi-year downward trend.

To put that in perspective, before the pandemic, before all that we typically saw and what's typical in July would be a 3 to 5% growth over that time. So we're actually, again, seeing fewer packages going out. So that's what happens when consumer demand is soft. So again, this is a little bit of a signal about can demand being a little bit down especially when it comes to kind of ecommerce stuff.

So carriers are trying to protect their margins. So we've seen in the last month or so, FedEx is consolidating its network. It's been cutting staff. Again with the about those warehouse numbers. USPS just raised their rates again. And some of these are big jumps, Tim, like I look at my number here. Medium flat rate box, for example, one of the most popular, most used went up over 11%. You know, it's a big jump on some of these rates, so. We're kind of seeing a shift as carriers are really trying to get their, their balance lines in order. So they, they really are focusing all their time on their biggest, maybe their most profitable customers, getting all the deals there.

So. If you are especially a midsize, or really if you're a small size carrier, this is probably not the strongest time for you to be working with the big, big carrier solely. Always, I recommend diversifying, diversify. I would recommend that for everyone. You shouldn't ever have a single carrier. But especially right now when those kind of big carriers are not necessarily the most affordable.

We're just seeing really large fees racking up there. You may wanna look at, you know, a lot of our customers, again, I'm, we are, as I like to say, we're, we're carrier agnostic. We love all our carriers and we work with hundreds. So but there are regional carriers. There may be last mile carriers. There can be some really specific kind of hybrid options you can use.

I always recommend using, you know, if you're, so, if you're an EasyPost customer right now listening, please look at Luma. Luma is the AI tool that helps you compare all the different rates. If you are a small shipper, it's totally free. Above that there's a little bit of a fee, but you can really dig into the data and figure out which carriers might be the best for different routes for different zones, if you're urban versus rural.

So you can look at your rate shopping. I would rate shop in real time. That's another big one, is as we move through peak and, and what we're seeing is sometimes those fees and stuff change really fast. So make sure you're constantly keeping an eye on it and just watch the performance data. So as some of these carriers are downsizing or or cutting staff.

Make sure that your SLAs, your service level agreements are being met, and if that starts to slip, you, you're gonna wanna be able to shift really fast.

Tim Ranagan 11:20

Yeah. I love those recommendations, Lori. I just, I, I wanna kind of summarize a few of the things that you just suggest. Because they're really important recommendations for our listeners as we head into peak season.

Remember, communication is key. Doesn't matter if you're communicating with your fulfillment network or with your carrier contracts, right? However you manage your carrier relationships, just remember that even if you're a small shipper, you can diversify your carrier network so that when some of these issues pop up that Lori just mentioned with our carriers happening this year that you have a plan in place, some contingencies in place, other methods that you can get your products out to your customers. So wonderful recommendations, Lori.

Obviously EasyPost is a tremendous resource for you, but just our general recommendation for our listeners, whether you're an EasyPost customer or not, diversify, diversify, diversify. It's the number one issue that we see in our industry, and it really, really can support you. Especially as we head into peak season, there's still plenty of time to get out ahead of some of these bottlenecks that you may face.

Lori Boyer 12:29

Well, and especially I think, Tim, as we are potentially facing a little bit of a downturn and a potentially soft peak season.

In shipping, you know, those are costs that can be saved. So there are opportunities to save a lot of money by shifting some of your volume to different carriers. And so, yeah, we may not be able to increase the number of packages going out, but you can definitely decrease the cost that you've got going sending out to, to your carrier network.

So. Just definitely keep an eye on that. I completely agree with that. Communication, your list was fabulous. It was exactly. You need to communicate, you need to diversify, keep an eye on what's going on and, and really this peak season, it's a peak season of uncertainty and, and a little challenge. You've gotta be ready to pivot and be able to make changes kind of on the fly.

Tim Ranagan 13:23

Last question for you, Lori. We do this every peak season, but I'm just curious to get your opinion as we head into peak 2025. I'm sure our listeners are like, what's Lori Boyer's number one, recommendation of things that she's learned from past years, data that you may have accumulated. What is your number one recommendation, the biggest advice you can offer to shippers as we head into peak?

Lori Boyer 13:47

Okay, so heading into peak right now, I think that the best thing you can do is to examine your systems now before you're moving into peak. So you've got a little bit of time. We're August, oh my goodness. It's August. We're already seeing, you know, the latest data shows the majority of people start their, their holiday shopping well before Halloween.

So we're right there. We're right on the precipice. Don't assume that everything's just gonna go according to plan. Assume the opposite, be, find the Boy Scout motto to be prepared and try to run through those scenarios. Figure out maybe where you can save a dollar or a penny or, or something. And that's really gonna add up for you and, and just take your time to make sure that you're looking at and have visibility and understand what's going on.

Tim Ranagan 14:39

Wonderful recommendations, Lori. Well, thank you Lori, for all of your thoughts and opinions. You've shared a lot of great information. These definitely were some of the more quiet trends that have kind of permeated throughout July.

And to our listeners, this has been another episode of Unboxing the Trends from Easy Post. If you would like to get involved, please make sure you like and subscribe to our content. If you'd like to see more content from Lori across our podcast network, make sure you visit us at easypost.com/podcasts. Until next month.

Lori Boyer 15:13

See you later.