Most peak readiness checklists confirm the work got done. They never test whether the decisions behind that work will survive November.
I will admit I got more excited about our first Peak Readiness Index survey than the subject matter strictly calls for.
After years of citing everyone else’s numbers, we finally had our own data on how logistics teams actually head into peak. And the finding that stuck with me had nothing to do with volume or surcharges. It was that most teams walk into their biggest quarter of the year with a carrier backup plan they have never once run.
And it changes what a readiness check should actually be checking.
Every operations team has a peak season checklist. Carrier contracts signed, staffing plan drafted, forecast loaded, packaging ordered. By late September most of those boxes are ticked, and the team feels ready.
Then November arrives and the same problems show up anyway. Costs run higher than the model said. A carrier misses a service window and there is no clean way to shift volume. The forecast that looked solid in September turns out to have been built on last year’s demand shape.
The problem with most checklists is that they confirm the work got done. They do not confirm that the decisions behind that work still hold up when conditions change. And peak is nothing but changing conditions.
In our 2026 Peak Readiness Index, a survey of 141 logistics professionals fielded in June, more people told us peak is getting harder than told us it is getting easier. Fifty-five percent said their top concern had worsened since 2025, and only 18% said it had improved. That is not a capacity story. It is a decision story. The bigger risk is a plan that cannot bend when conditions move.
So the checklist worth running is not a longer list of tasks. It is a short list of decisions, and the question for each one is the same. If conditions change in November, can I still change this?
Here are the four decisions our data says break most often, and a way to pressure-test each one before peak instead of during it.
Can you see your fully loaded cost while peak is running?
Cost is the most common peak worry, and it is also the one teams have the least visibility into while it is happening. In our survey, 29% named shipping costs and surcharges their number one peak concern, the single most-cited answer. Among ecommerce respondents, it rose to 44%, the highest share among the segments surveyed.
Here is what makes cost different from every other concern. It is not just the biggest worry, it is also the biggest blind spot. Twenty-three percent of shippers told us all-in shipping cost is the area where they have the least visibility, the top answer on that question too. For ecommerce teams it climbs to 30%. The number people worry about most is the same number they can see least.
The trap is that base rates look settled. You negotiated them, they are in the contract, so cost feels handled. Even when base rates are locked, accessorials, dimensional weight, zone shifts, and surcharge timing can push actual cost above the model, especially on packages sitting just outside a threshold. If your team does not see that layer until invoice reconciliation, January is too late to act.
The test: Pull 30 shipments from last November. Reconcile what you were quoted against what you were actually invoiced, every surcharge included, and calculate true cost per package. If that takes your team a week of spreadsheet archaeology, you cannot do it live during peak, when it would actually change a decision.
Ready looks like being able to see fully loaded cost per shipment while peak is running, not sixty days after it ends. If you cannot, you have not finished a checklist item. You have carried a blind spot into your highest-volume quarter, so instrument it before October.
Have you actually run your carrier backup plan?
This was the sharpest finding in the whole survey. Only one in three logistics professionals, 33%, have a carrier contingency plan they have actually tested. The other 67% head into peak with a plan they have never run, a plan still in progress, or no plan at all. Break that down and it gets worse: 35% have a plan on paper they have not tested, 23% would need to build one from scratch, and 8% have not considered the scenario at all.
It varies sharply by who you are. Among retailers, 72% have no tested plan. Among ecommerce teams, 67%. The one group that treats testing as normal is 3PLs, where 60% have a tested plan, because operational resilience is the actual product they sell.
Almost every team says they have a backup plan if a carrier stumbles. Far fewer have ever generated a real label on the second carrier. A contingency plan you have not tested is a document, not a capability. And peak is exactly when you find out which one you have.
Retailer, marketplace, and 3PL results are directional because each subgroup included fewer than 20 respondents.
The test: Before peak, ship real volume through your backup carrier. Not a sandbox call, actual orders. Confirm the carrier is integrated, the rates are loaded, the labels generate, and the volume can move without a fire drill.
Ready looks like some volume already flowing through the backup so the path is proven and warm when your primary carrier has a bad week. Multi-carrier access only helps if the selection logic is live at label generation, not sitting in a contract you negotiated and never operationalized.
Does your forecast assume the right shape, not just the right size?
Forecasting and peak planning was the number two concern in our survey, named by 21% of respondents. And the input that feeds it is shaky: consumer demand is one of the top visibility gaps shippers reported, and for retailers specifically it is the single biggest blind spot, named by a third of them.
Most peak forecasts get scrutinized on one axis. Is the volume number high enough. That is the wrong question this year, because the shape of demand keeps moving even when the total holds.
Holiday demand does not arrive in one neat spike. Roughly two in five holiday shoppers have started before November in recent years, while many continue buying through December. Even if Cyber 5 remains the high point, a forecast built around one sharp surge can still miss the weeks surrounding it.
The test: Plot last year’s daily order volume, not the monthly total. Lay this year’s staffing and capacity plan against that curve. Are you buying for one surge or for a six-week plateau? If demand visibility is where your team is weakest, fix that input before you trust the output.
Ready looks like a forecast that names its assumed shape, because volume spread across more weeks is a different operational problem than a single surge. It lands hardest on cost per package and labor hours, not on total revenue.
What have you not decided yet?
Every peak plan has an open item that keeps getting pushed. The carrier you meant to add. The packaging change you meant to test against the new dimensional math. The cost review you have now rescheduled four times, no judgment, okay, a little judgment.
Those open items are not neutral placeholders. Each one is a decision you have chosen to make live, in November, under pressure, instead of in September when you had time and options. That is the most expensive place to decide anything.
The test: List every open item on the plan. For each, ask one question: what does it cost to decide this during peak instead of before it? Anything that gets materially more expensive or riskier under load moves to September. Anything genuinely fine to defer, defer on purpose, not by accident.
Ready looks like a plan with no accidental open items. The things still undecided are undecided by choice, and none of them are load-bearing.
The one question that separates ready teams
Run your existing checklist. Confirm the work got done. Then run it a second time with one question layered on top of every item. If conditions change in November, can I still change this?
The goal is not to prepare for every possible disruption. It is to keep the decisions that matter changeable. That means being able to see cost while it happens, shift carriers without a scramble, and adjust to a demand curve that does not match the plan.
Readiness is not a state you reach by finishing tasks. It is how much room you left yourself to make a different call when the season does something you did not expect. And it always does.
The four-decision readiness check
| Decision | The question to ask | The test to run | Warning sign |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cost visibility | Can I see fully loaded cost per shipment while peak is running? | Reconcile 30 shipments from last November, quoted vs. invoiced, all surcharges in | You do not know true cost per package until January |
| Carrier contingency | Can I actually move volume to a second carrier fast? | Ship real volume through the backup before peak | Nobody has generated a label on carrier two this year |
| Forecast shape | Does my plan assume the right demand curve, not just the right total? | Plot last year’s daily curve against this year’s staffing plan | The forecast was reviewed only on “is the number big enough” |
| Open decisions | What will it cost to decide this in November instead of September? | List every open item and price the delay | Key calls are still “we’ll figure it out closer to peak” |
Want to see where your own peak plan is most exposed before October? Take the five-minute Peak Readiness Stress Test and see how your carrier contingency and cost readiness score against the 141 logistics professionals in our survey. For the full findings by segment, read the 2026 Peak Readiness Index.
Frequently asked questions
What is a peak season readiness check?
A peak season readiness check is a review of your holiday shipping plan that tests whether your key decisions can still change once conditions shift, rather than only confirming that preparation tasks were completed. A traditional checklist verifies that contracts are signed and forecasts are loaded. A readiness check asks whether you can still adjust cost visibility, carrier routing, forecasting, and open decisions when volume, rates, or demand move in November.
What should a peak season shipping checklist include?
Beyond the standard items like carrier contracts, staffing, and packaging, a strong peak season shipping checklist should pressure-test four decisions: whether you can see fully loaded cost per shipment during peak, whether your carrier contingency plan has actually been run, whether your forecast assumes the right demand shape and not just the right total, and what decisions are still open that will be more expensive to make under pressure.
How do you test a carrier contingency plan?
You test a carrier contingency plan by moving real shipment volume through your backup carrier before peak, not just documenting the plan on paper. Confirm the carrier is integrated, rates are loaded, labels generate correctly, and volume can shift without a scramble. In EasyPost’s 2026 survey, only 33% of logistics professionals had a contingency plan they had actually tested, which is the difference between a plan that works and one that only exists in a slide deck.
See where your peak plan is most exposed
The Peak Readiness Stress Test scores your carrier contingency and cost readiness against 141 logistics professionals in five minutes, no signup required. Find the decisions most likely to break before November does it for you.
