Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and Beyond: 2024 Peak Season Predictions
by Jaidyn Farar
With the busiest days of peak season—Black Friday and Cyber Monday—approaching, we thought we’d take a look at some 2024 holiday shopping (and shipping) trends and predictions.
So sit back, relax, and enjoy a 5-minute read that will help you know what to expect in the next few weeks.
When people are shopping
The early bird gets the worm … and the early shopper gets the deals. At least, that’s what consumers seem to believe. This year, 24% of respondents to one survey had already started shopping as of early October. The same survey reveals that the majority of people don’t procrastinate their holiday shopping, with 98% planning to begin before mid-December.
Despite getting an early start, most people will still be making purchases as the end of the year approaches; one report finds that 62% of consumers plan to finish their shopping sometime in December.
Unsurprisingly, the top spending days for online shopping are Veteran’s Day, Thanksgiving Eve, Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday. The two biggest money-makers? Black Friday and Cyber Monday, which Adobe predicts will bring in $10.8 billion and $13.2 billion, respectively.
The lesson for businesses: while you should definitely have a solid plan in place to handle Black Friday and Cyber Monday, peak season won’t necessarily slow down in December.
You’ll need to stay on the ball to attract customers and provide a great shopping experience.
Consumer spending trends
How much are consumers planning to spend on the holidays this year?
While there’s no way to know for sure, PwC predicts that they’ll spend an average of $1,638 per shopper—an increase of 7% from last year. That’s great news for merchants! But while average spending is increasing, some consumers are cutting back. PwC discovered that about 30% of people plan to spend less than they did last year, likely influenced by high inflation rates.
To reach these budget-conscious shoppers, brands and retailers may need to offer special deals and discounts. Shipping costs could also come into play as more consumers opt for sellers that offer free or affordable delivery.
Regardless of whether consumers cut back or ramp up their holiday spending, experts predict higher sales numbers than last year. According to Deloitte, retail sales between November 2024 and January 2025 will total between $1.58 and $1.59 trillion.
Looking at online sales specifically, Adobe forecasts that $240.8 billion will be spent, with more than half of that ($128.1 billion) consisting of mobile purchases. Take it as a sign to perfect your website’s mobile design!
In-store vs. online shopping
Although ecommerce is going strong (as evidenced by Adobe’s findings above), many people still enjoy the in-store shopping experience. Their top three reasons to visit physical stores during the holidays? Holiday displays and store atmosphere, holiday-specific products, and making an event out of the shopping trip. On the other hand, reasons for choosing online shopping include greater convenience, fast shipping, and lower prices.
Ecommerce businesses have a lot to look forward to this peak season. According to NRF, over half (57%) of consumers plan on making holiday purchases online this year. Deloitte reports that ecommerce will be “a key driver of overall retail sales growth,” growing between 7% and 9% year-over-year during the 2024 holiday season.
Note that consumer shopping preferences change over time. Early on, online shopping tends to be most popular, with Black Friday and Cyber Monday bringing in lots of sales. After Cyber Monday, many people tend to turn to in-store shopping.
Shipping preferences
When it comes to online shopping, customers enjoy having a variety of fulfillment options. For 82% of online shoppers in 2024, home delivery is their preferred delivery method. But preferences can vary by generation. While 89% of baby boomers opt for home delivery, almost half of Gen Z and millennials choose in-store pickup instead. If you have physical stores, offering a buy online, pick up in-store (BOPIS) option is a great way to cater to these younger shoppers.
When it comes to shipping costs, this year’s consumers are more frugal than in past years. In 2023, 26% of shoppers chose the cheapest delivery option, but that number has risen to 40% this year.
The takeaway? Make sure to provide an affordable standard shipping option—even if it takes a little longer.
More affordable holiday shipping with EasyPost
EasyPost provides a collection of shipping APIs that simplify every step of the shipping process, from carrier selection and label creation to insurance and returns.
We make shipping easier and more affordable year-round, but we know that peak season is an especially critical time for ecommerce businesses. That’s why our team ensures 99% uptime during the holiday months, allowing shippers to keep their fulfillment operations up and running.
Learn how EasyPost can support your shipping on Black Friday and beyond.
Sources
Want to dive deeper into the data? The information in this article is drawn from the following reports: